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秩序混乱的世界
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《CNN财富连线》:秩序混乱的世界



(中文大意)

  全球的经济处于极度不均衡和不稳定,世界大部份地区过渡地依赖美国发展自己的经济,而美国又过渡地依赖这个世界刺激自己的胃口。

  目前的状态是危险的,而且当前这种状况正变得越来越糟,导致急速转向平衡的可能性在增加。当今世界处于一种两阵对垒极度向对方施压的局面。现在需要一系列小地震来舒缓长期紧绷的应力。这些小地震是七国集团财长在迪拜会议上释放的。在美国的压力下,七国集团号召一些主要国家和经济地区在汇率政策上更加灵活(弹性),以促进国际金融体系出现平缓和广泛的调整。这样的陈述被市场理解为号召亚洲国家从人为保持弱势汇率以促进经济增长的努力中走出来。

  特别是日本,干预汇率做法已经成为其撇开急需靠经济改革方式来处理经济增长的机制。日本未能通过对经济做结构性的改革推动内需增长,带来稳定复苏。其反而多次重复性地试图把自己的问题向国外输出。日本股市泡沫在破裂了十四年后仍无甚起色。摩根斯坦利首席经济学家罗奇(Steve Roach)称,这些国家需要找出能使本地区经济增长的道路。如果它们能对因自己的货币升值出现问题做不断的努力,整个世界将会变得更好。


NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - The global economy is profoundly unbalanced, with much of the world overly dependent on the United States for growth and the United States overly dependent on the rest of the world to fuel its appetites.

It is a dangerous state, and it keeps on getting worse, raising the potential for a sharp shift back into balance that comes too fast. The world is in a situation akin to sitting at the fault line between two tectonic plates straining against each other. What you want is a series of little earthquakes that relieve the pressure over time, not the big one.


Little earthquakes were what the Group of Seven (G7) finance ministers were hoping to set off at their weekend meeting in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. With prodding from the United States, the G7 called for "more flexibility in exchange rates for major countries or economic areas to promote smooth and widespread adjustments in the international financial system."

This was widely interpreted as a call for Asian countries to move away from their efforts to boost growth by keeping their currencies weak.

In Japan, in particular, currency intervention has become a coping mechanism to put off much-needed reforms. Rather than going through the structural changes needed to boost domestic demand, and so bring about sustainable recovery, Japan repeatedly has tried to eXPort its way around its problems. Nearly 14 years after the Japanese stock market bubble collapsed, it still hasn't worked.

"These countries need to figure out a way to make their domestic economies grow," Morgan Stanley chief economist Steve Roach said. "If they intensify their efforts to reform because their currencies have strengthened, then the world will be a better place."


For the United States, a dollar that is allowed to float more freely against its major trading partners' currencies is a weaker dollar. This would make the country more competitive globa

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