
(中文大意)
美6月零售销售下降,汽车销量减少,一些高技术企业警告到二季度末企业硬件和软件支出疲软。
美国经济从衰退中复苏还未满三年,最近出人意料的几份报告让人质疑美国经济复苏的力度。投行雷曼兄弟的美国经济分析师伊桑-S.哈里斯称其最近遇到的每一个客户都问同一个问题,即放缓是否会威胁美国经济。
因企业的利润数据让投资人失望,美国股市自6月底以来确实步履蹒跚。债券价格开始回升,经济显示某些脆弱性也让人们减轻了对通胀的恐惧。
高盛经济学家安德鲁-希尔顿表示:“未来几周公布的经济数据很有可能延续经济放慢增长的主题,通胀压力还存在,加上消费者需求有萎缩的趋势。我们认为工业领域会有温和减速现象。”
Retail sales slowed in June. Auto purchases declined. Several technology companies warned about weak software and hardware spending at the end of the second quarter.
Less than three years since the United States emerged from a recession, a patchwork of uneXPectedly soft economic reports is raising doubts about the vigor of the recovery.
"At every client meeting I have,'' said Ethan S. Harris, chief United States economist at Lehman Brothers, "I'm asked whether a slowdown has hit the U.S. economy."
Indeed, stock prices have faltered since the end of June, as corporate earnings have disappointed investors. And bond prices have risen, as evidence of economic fragility has allayed fears that inflation will accelerate. The recent sluggish economic indicators have inspired a note of caution in forecasts which until now had been unabashedly bullish.
"Economic data over the next several weeks are likely to follow the theme of slower growth with continued inflationary pressures," wrote Andrew Tilton, an Goldman Sachs economist, in a note to clients. "In addition to a weaker trend of consumer spending, we eXPect some modest deceleration in factory sector activity."
But, despite the scattered straws in the wind, most economists remain confident that economic growth is not collapsing but is shifting to a lower, more sustainable rate.
"The economy has come off its peak in the last couple of months," said Martin A. Regalia, chief economist at the United States Chamber of Commerce. "People have dropped their forecasts to about 3.5 percent. That's still a pretty solid number."
As the nation has rebounded from the recession of 2001, the main theme has been the ability of consumers to continue borrowing and spending. Near record-low interest rates allowed homeowners to refinance their mortgages, taking money out of their homes to pay for renovations and all sorts of consumer durables. Dirt-low interest rates allowed auto companies and others to offe
美经济复苏遇上寒流